The Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision on Wednesday. A Friday deadline for tariffs on Canada, Mexico, the European Union along with other trading partners also looms. The July employment report arrives the same day. Second-quarter gross domestic product, the personal-consumption-expenditures price index, and earnings from Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Apple, Amazon in addition to dozens of other companies fill the remaining gaps in the calendar.
Trade officials have until Friday to reach agreements that would avert levies of up to 30 percent on imports from Canada, Mexico next to the European Union. Negotiators continue talks with China ahead of an August 12 deadline that officials expect to extend. The White House has renewed public pressure on the Federal Reserve ahead of its Wednesday announcement. Futures markets price in a near certain chance that the federal funds target range remains unchanged at 5.25 – 5.50 percent. Traders will parse Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for signals on the September meeting.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases its first estimate of second quarter gross domestic product on Wednesday. The economy shrank at a 0.2 percent annualized pace in the first quarter, weighed down by a wider trade deficit and slower inventory accumulation. Consensus forecasts point to a 1.8 percent rebound, driven by firmer consumer spending and a smaller drag from net exports.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the July employment report on Friday. Non-farm payrolls rose by 206,000 in June. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.1 percent, yet wage growth held at 3.9 percent year-over-year. Forecasters expect a 185,000 gain for July and no change in the jobless rate. Average hourly earnings are projected to rise 0.3 percent from June and 3.7 percent from a year earlier. A softer print would reinforce expectations for a September rate cut – a firmer number would push those expectations toward December.
The personal-consumption-expenditures price index for June arrives on Thursday. The core index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.1 percent in May and 2.6 percent from a year earlier. Forecasters look for a 0.2 percent monthly advance and a 2.5 percent annual pace. The employment cost index for the second quarter also appears on Thursday. The index climbed 1.2 percent in the first quarter – a repeat would keep the annual pace near 4.3 percent.
The Conference Board releases its consumer confidence index for July on Tuesday. The index slipped to 100.4 in June from 101.3 in May. The University of Michigan’s final sentiment reading for July appears on Friday – the preliminary figure fell to 66.0 from 68.2. The S&P Case-Shiller home price index for May is due on Tuesday. Prices rose 1.3 percent in April and 7.4 percent year-over-year. Pending-home sales for June follow on Wednesday – contracts fell 1.9 percent in May.
The Commerce Department reports the June trade balance on Tuesday. The deficit widened to $75.1 billion in May from $74.5 billion in April. Retail and wholesale inventories for June are also scheduled for release on Tuesday. Both measures declined in May.
The ADP employment report for July appears on Wednesday. Private payrolls increased by 150,000 in June. Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 26 arrive on Thursday. Claims rose to 235,000 in the prior week. The Chicago Business Barometer for July follows on Thursday – the index slipped to 45.3 in June. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing purchasing managers index for July is due on Friday. The index registered 48.8 in June. S&P Global’s final manufacturing PMI for July also appears on Friday – the flash reading stood at 49.4.
Earnings season reaches its peak. Microsoft but also Meta Platforms report on Wednesday after the close. Apple besides Amazon follow on Thursday. Procter & Gamble, UnitedHealth Group post results on Tuesday. AbbVie along with Comcast release figures on Thursday. ExxonMobil or Colgate-Palmolive close the week on Friday. Health-care heavyweights Welltower, CVS Health in addition to Humana also publish updates. Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase reports on Tuesday.
Analysts expect Microsoft to post revenue of $64.5 billion for the fiscal fourth quarter, up 14 percent year-over-year, driven by Azure cloud growth above 30 percent. Meta Platforms revenue is projected at $38.3 billion, up 20 percent, as advertising demand rebounds. Apple is forecast to report $84.2 billion in fiscal third quarter revenue, a 2 percent increase, with services growth offsetting softer iPhone sales. Amazon revenue is seen at $148.6 billion, up 11 percent, led by advertising and cloud segments.
UnitedHealth Group is expected to report revenue of $99.8 billion for the second quarter, up 8 percent, though medical cost trends remain under scrutiny. Visa revenue is projected at $8.9 billion, up 9 percent, as cross border volumes stay robust. Procter & Gamble revenue is forecast at $20.5 billion, up 2 percent, with pricing gains offsetting flat volumes.
